Budget and forecasts
Budget law: the income tax cut for the middle class brings blue-collar workers €4. A self-employed worker who moves to the flat tax saves eight thousand
13 November 2026, 16:29
The Parliamentary Budget Office and Istat have run the numbers on the 2027 budget law: the income tax cut goes mainly to managers, while the wider flat tax rewards those who leave IRPEF. Meanwhile inflation, with tax brackets frozen, takes more from employees and pensioners than the cut gives back.
Mothers' bonus: the budget raises it for those with two children. From those with three and a permanent job it can take up to three thousand euros a year
11 November 2026, 23:03
From 2027 the budget law replaces the relief on the pension contribution of mothers with at least three children with an allowance of one hundred euros a month, only below forty thousand euros of income. It is presented as a measure against the falling birth rate: the technical report says how much it costs, not how many mothers lose out.
Second IRES advance payment: the forecast method only holds up on a well-built pre-closing estimate
10 November 2026, 08:09
By the end of the month, Italian limited companies pay the last instalment of their income tax for the current year. A company earning less in 2026 can base it on an estimate for the year rather than on its 2025 tax, but the estimate has to go all the way down to taxable income: if it turns out too low, a penalty is charged on the shortfall.
Energy bills: the budget helps businesses pay for electricity. From 2029 the cost passes to other consumers, inside the renewables charge
9 November 2026, 16:07
For two years the electricity discount for businesses is paid by the public purse. From 2029 the budget moves it onto energy bills, inside the charge meant to support renewable sources: with biomethane, up to €3.2 billion over two years.
Hacker attacks: Palazzo Chigi cites them in support of €40 billion of military spending. To protect networks, the State allocates just over €400 million
8 November 2026, 16:13
In Verona the Prime Minister explained that defence money also protects food and hospitals from cyber attacks. In 2027 military spending will exceed €40 billion; the identifiable budget lines for cyber security are worth one hundredth of that figure, and the budget law cuts some of them further.
Turnover has grown: how much comes from prices and how much from the quantities sold
8 November 2026, 08:07
According to the Bank of Italy, sales by Italian companies grew faster in the first nine months of the year, but the figure is calculated at today's prices and price lists have gone up. Before deciding on headcount, purchasing and the 2027 budget, it pays to separate, within sales growth, the part that comes from prices from the part that comes from volumes.
In Irpinia a local firm reopens with €13.2 million the factory ArcelorMittal left behind. In Taranto the State has spent €3.6 billion and the former Ilva has gone cold
7 November 2026, 16:07
At the Ministry of Enterprise an Irpinian maker of metal structures signed the preliminary agreement for the Luogosano plant: it takes back the workers and will hire more. In the same week the Taranto steelworks, kept alive for years with public money, shut down its last blast furnace.
Otranto: the Ministry of Culture spends €1.8 million on seventeen nights of light shows. The three richest assignments made without a tender stop just below the threshold
6 November 2026, 16:13
To project animations onto six monuments in Salento, the Regional Directorate of National Museums of Puglia awarded eight assignments out of nine without comparing bids. Across Italy, contracts written a step away from the limit above which a tender would be required are now almost nine times as many as in 2021.
Healthcare: the budget gives over-75s €300 to spend only outside the public service. Families already pay €42.4 billion out of their own pockets
3 November 2026, 16:13
The budget bill sets aside €1.6 billion for a card that helps elderly people pay for care not covered by the national health service, which in the same year receives €2.4 billion in new money. Meanwhile more than a fifth of health spending already comes out of families' pockets.
In the budget, prices are updated item by item, not with the inflation rate
31 October 2026, 08:16
Istat estimated for October the highest rise in consumer prices in three years, with an average that hides items up by a third and others almost unchanged. Whoever is preparing the 2027 budget cannot apply a single percentage to all costs: each item rises with the mechanism written in its contract, and revenues follow their own timing.
Sicily: the Region raises the fund for the territories from 50 to 174 million. In Niscemi, after the landslide, the money goes to the stadium's press area
30 October 2026, 20:53
With the budget changes approved on 22 October, the Sicilian Regional Assembly handed out hundreds of small works town by town, without a call for proposals. The rule that set an equal amount for each population band was rejected in committee.
Make in-house or buy from a subcontractor: the comparison rests on the costs that really disappear
30 October 2026, 13:37
A company near Bergamo has spent money to bring in-house work it could have sent outside, and explains the choice with faster delivery to its customers. Anyone facing the same two paths cannot stop at the supplier's price: what counts is which expenses really go away, what time is worth and what happens when volumes fall.
Water in the Brescia area: the Province approves increases up to 2029. Part of the money for the networks had gone into other works
29 October 2026, 15:54
For a family of three the water bill rises to €459 a year. The Ufficio d'Ambito says it is needed to make up for missing investment, because for years part of the money meant for the networks went elsewhere, and meanwhile more than four litres in ten are lost from the pipes.
Car tax 2027: the State scraps it for one year and reimburses the Regions. From 2028 the money is not there
28 October 2026, 16:00
The Parliamentary Budget Office has examined the car tax exemption for 2027: it helps less well-off families more but is paid for with one-off PNRR savings that will not recur, and the higher rate chosen by some Regions ends up being borne by everyone.
When customers postpone projects, a fall in turnover shows up first in the orders
27 October 2026, 08:22
A German IT services group lowers its sales forecast for the year because customers are taking longer to decide: the ratio between orders received and turnover shows that slowdown before it reaches the invoices.
The hyper-depreciation allowance is worth the tax it saves, and that saving comes back one year at a time
14 October 2026, 09:27
In the third quarter, machine-tool orders placed in Italy fell by 7.1%, and the manufacturers are counting on the hyper-depreciation allowance for a recovery. For the buyer, the 180% uplift is not the value of the support: the support is the IRES paid less, payment after payment, over the years of depreciation.
Chinese hybrids: for two years a petrol engine was enough to dodge the EU duty
13 October 2026, 18:24
The EU's 2024 duty hit only Chinese electric cars: hybrids arriving in the Union rose from 107,000 in 2024 to about 378,000 in the first seven months of 2026, and the cap agreed now, 350,000 a year, still sits above 2025.
A pay rise is measured on the total employment cost, not on the gross salary
13 October 2026, 09:35
On 12 October Istat told Parliament that pay has stopped catching up with prices: with the renewals signed up to August, contractual pay in 2026 would grow by 2.5 per cent, against inflation already locked in at 3. When a pay rise comes, what counts for the business is not the figure written in the agreement but the amount that ends up in staff costs, contributions and severance pay included.
Adequate organisational structures: what Article 2086 of the Italian Civil Code requires, and who must have them
12 October 2026, 09:34
Since 2019 every business run as a company must be able to tell in time whether it will manage to pay its debts: what it needs is not a binder of procedures but monthly figures and a forecast that looks at least a year ahead.
One month does not make a trend: the pace of sales is read over three months, leaving out exceptional orders
8 October 2026, 16:27
In Germany production rose by 2% in August while manufacturing orders slumped by 10.6%: put on the same basis, stripped of large orders and read over the quarter, the two figures tell a different story, and the same method helps to read a company's turnover.
In Italian cinema public aid is worth 37 per cent of production: a company's margin must also be read without the grants
6 October 2026, 09:42
The Ministry of Culture's report on the film law shows companies whose operating result is positive and turns negative once grants are removed. The same check applies to any business: the grant sits among revenues and lifts EBITDA, but it lasts only as long as the rule that provides it.
In August shops took more money and sold less: turnover is read by separating prices from quantities
2 October 2026, 11:07
Istat measures retail sales twice, in euros and in volume, and in August the two figures moved in opposite directions: the same check, run on a company's own turnover, shows whether it is growing or has simply raised its price lists.
Turnover grows by 3 per cent and profit falls: that is what happens when the margin loses two points
26 September 2026, 09:53
According to Unioncamere, more than one business in four expects turnover to grow by at least 3 per cent in 2026, and among the businesses worried about their energy bills 43.4 per cent expect lower margins. Taken together, the two forecasts can mean more work and less profit: a company's strength is measured by its distance from the break-even point, not by its turnover.
Before a plan, calculate where the company is heading if nobody does anything
23 September 2026, 08:06
The twelve-month extension of short-time working for a company in the Melfi supply chain helps explain what the five-year inertial projection is for: the scenario obtained by assuming that nobody takes any decision at all.
The factory building is an investment. It should be judged like any other
21 September 2026, 14:12
Your money is tied up in the factory building, and almost always nobody has worked out what it earns. The right comparison is not mortgage payments against rent: it is what that capital would have earned if put to work in the business.
How much debt is too much? It is the wrong question, for a state as for a business
21 September 2026, 13:14
Rising yields, wide deficits, huge debts. The instinctive reaction is that there is too much debt, and it is the same mistaken reaction people have in front of a company's accounts: the stock tells you how much, not whether you can cope.
Your best deal may have been a terrible decision
21 September 2026, 13:00
Poker players and football analysts have stopped judging choices by their outcome. In business it still happens, and the cost is that the organisation learns the wrong lesson.
If a digital investment doesn't show in your numbers, it didn't happen
21 September 2026, 12:36
The Economist asks how quickly investment in artificial intelligence turns into gains for everyone. The same question, three rungs further down, is whether that €40,000 of software shows up anywhere in your accounts.
The incentive pays for the machine once. You pay for the people every year
21 September 2026, 08:04
Before using a subsidy to grow, it pays to calculate how far the minimum turnover that covers all costs rises, because the aid is a one-off while the costs it brings in stay.
How to manage generational handover in a family business
Training
We have often talked about control, method and strategy, but there is a moment in the life of every business that truly puts all of this to the test: the generational handover.
How to (really) reorganise a company: case history no. 3, part II
Training
After Vision, Mission and strategic KPIs, it was time to move from analysis to action: the levers, the business plan, the figures, the finance.
Why Fractional Management is the right solution for SMEs
Training
In our recent posts we have talked about controlling, organisation and synergy between skills.
From controlling to control of the future
Training
Many business owners know all too well the feeling that something in the company is not heading in the right direction: the problem is that feelings are not enough and, often, the numbers are only looked at once the problem has already become an emergency.
The rolling forecast: a little-known but essential tool
Training
Preparing a budget is important, but stopping there is a mistake, because the budget has a structural limitation: it is static, built months in advance, on assumptions that can change quickly.
The budget is not a forecast. It is taking a stand
Training
The budget is one of the most underrated tools in SMEs: not because it is useless but because it is used the wrong way.
Without a budget, you are not running the business. You are reacting
Training
Once you understand how to build a price, where margin is generated and how to analyse it, you reach the highest level: deciding where you want to go.
Controlling: the essential steps to avoid leaving your company to chance
Training
Many business owners believe they have everything under control until the numbers speak for themselves but, with the Italian Business Crisis Code, having clear tools to monitor and steer the company is no longer an option: it is a necessity.
Controlling does not mean “doing the accounts”
Training
And yet how many SMEs still confuse them? Many business owners believe that having up-to-date accounts or efficient management software is enough to know how the company is doing.
Financial accounting explained (really) in plain words
Training
Together we will set out on a structured journey to talk about controlling but, to do so, we first need to understand where the numbers come from, so that we can then interpret them.